If the coffee sector does not adapt to climate change the taste of coffee will become bitter and yet still cost more
Jeffrey Gogo Climate Story
BAD news for coffee drinkers – climate change is threatening your morning dose of the beloved beverage. That balanced rich flavour and fine aftertaste for which the Zimbabwean coffee is globally renowned will become bitter, more expensive, due to climate-induced changes in precipitation and temperature, according to Abel Chemura, a climate change researcher with the Chinhoyi University of Technology.
“Zimbabwean coffee is highly aromatic, medium-bodied with a medium density and lively berry-like or citrusy acidity,” Chemura told The Herald Business via email. “But if the coffee sector does not adapt to climate change the taste of coffee will become bitter and yet costing more,” he added.
In 2015, Chemura and three other experts from the Department of Research and Specialists Services found that land suitable to grow the arabica beans favoured globally by specialty roasters will be cut 10,2 percent in Zimbabwe by mid-Century.
It’s a decline of between 30 000ha and 55 000ha, say the researchers. By 2050, farmers in the major coffee producing regions of Chipinge, Mutare, Chimanimani and Mutasa will see lesser rain, and more heat that dries the berries before they can be harvested, they say.
There is currently over 418 000ha suitable for growing the bean countrywide – much of it reliant on seasonal rain – but Mutare will be hardest hit, with 75 percent of land there becoming marginal.
Quality crop
Zimbabwe doesn’t produce much by way of quantity, but the quality of its coffee – wet processed, or washed, to give it a distinctive flavour – makes it one of the world’s favourite, “second only to Kenya” in Africa.
That’s because of the stable climatic conditions and good soils, Chemura said. Farmers here favour growing the aromatic arabica coffee.
The breed does well in temperatures of between 18 and 22 degrees Celsius under fairly frequent, gentle rain, scientists say, which explains why the bulk of Zimbabwean coffee is grown in the high rainfall areas in the east, along the border with Mozambique.
Compared to its bitter cousin robutsa, arabica is susceptible to disease, pests, or any rapid changes to heat or cold – and such events may become widespread – indeed they already are – as climates warm even more. “Zimbabwean coffee is often bought by companies for blending purposes where they mix it with other low quality coffees produced from other countries,” Chemura states, in the email.
But the impact of climate change on local coffee production is already evident. A succession of droughts have forced the average coffee yield to fall 56 percent to 800kg per hectare today from 1 800kg/ha in 1998.
The decline appears to correspond with a temperature rise of about 0,1 degrees Celsius per decade in the country.
Nationally, production has plummeted to just 500 000kg per year from 10 million kg two decades back, partly owing to the structural changes that occurred in agriculture after 2000, which split the large-scale producers of the crop.
The enemies are many, and that includes the coffee leaf rust, a fungal disease appearing as “powdery orange spores causing the leaves to fall off.”
The disease affects quality, and in badly affected areas, new plants must be planted.
With the UN expert panel on climate change predicting a 3 degrees Celsius warming in Zimbabwe in this Century, conditions favourable to pests and disease, the coffee bean here has already seen a lot of stress.
“The coffee white stem borer has become a significant threat to the (local) coffee industry,” Chemura lamented, adding “the pest. . . kills coffee plants slowly over up to four years and reduces yields and quality of the coffee.”
Tea loving Zimbabweans
Zimbabweans drink more tea than they do coffee, but the number is rising.
Up to 10 percent or 50 000kg of the coffee grown here is consumed locally, and the rest exported.
That’s roughly 10 million cups of local coffee consumed – excluding that which is imported.
In other words, for a country with capacity to process 40 million kg of coffee per year, Zimbabweans are short-changing their taste-buds – and of course, export earnings potential.
Researchers are worried that water shortage and higher temperatures will cause significant decline in Zimbabwean coffee production, as farmers turn to other farming enterprises such as poultry and apiculture, or even the bitter, but drought-tolerant robutsa.
This could eventually leave a sour taste in the mouth of coffee lovers, hurt farmer incomes, as well as dilute Zimbabwe’s reputation as a producer of premium arabica.
Coffee is regarded the second most profitable crop in Zimbabwe after flu-cured tobacco, with potential annual earnings of $50 million, at current production capacity, according to the Coffee R0esearch Institute Zimbabwe.
To cope, Chemura et al suggest a breakup of the larger farms into smaller pieces, development of new plant varieties that can adapt to climate change, and increased spending on irrigation infrastructure.
“Smaller but numerous coffee gardens could meet or surpass current coffee production even under climate change as they may allow for intensive management,” the researchers say in a paper titled: “Bio-Climatic Modelling and Projected Climatic Suitability of Coffee Production in Zimbabwe.”
Separately, Chemura has developed a technology providing online advisory, extension and information services that he believes will be a game-changer.
“Coffee is a technical crop requiring farmers to make decisions all year round,” he argues.
“Technical backstopping through technology brings information to the farmer’s door step making them more efficient and productive.”
God is faithful.