Sadc told to prepare for two-pronged rainy season
Walter Nyamukondiwa in Gaborone, BOTSWANA—
Southern African countries have been urged to prepare for the worst in the 2017/18 rainfall season, after a regional forecast released over the weekend showed there will be a drought in the first half of the season and floods in the second. According to an outlook released by the Southern African Development Committee (sadc), Climate Services Centre (CSC) at a climate forum here, there would be normal to below normal rains from October to November and normal to above normal rains from January to March 2018.
The southern parts of Zimbabwe, including the Matabeleland regions will have normal to above normal rains of between 200mm and 300mm in the first half of the season, with good rains expected throughout the country in January, with the threat of flooding in some areas.
A detailed localised forecast would be issued by the Meteorologcial Services Department of Zimbabwe soon.
SADC climate experts said at the meeting that the first phase of below normal to normal rains could result in some countries suffering a devastating drought, while the second phase could see some battling a humanitarian disaster caused by floods due to the normal to above normal rains.
This, according to CSC, calls for careful planning to ensure food security and disaster preparedness in the event of flooding.
The centre’s coordinator Dr Nsadisa Faka told delegates at the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) that the regional outlook needed to be broken down to national level by respective departments of meteorology.
“Generally, the forecast is going to be normal to below normal for the first part of the season,” he said. “That is October, November to December and normal to above normal for January, February and March 2018.
“However, the details will be provided by each member State because at the sadc level we are giving a regional scale.”
Dr Faka said users of information which included Government departments and farmers should contact their local meteorology offices for tailored products.
He said the regional model could not capture the local level outlook, but gives a global outlook for planning purposes.
Weather experts from the country will meet this week to consider the regional outlook and include the national factors such as topography and other aspects drawn from experience to come up with the national outlook.
Government has put in place measures to consolidate the resurgent agriculture sector through supporting irrigation projects under the Command Agriculture programme and the Presidential Inputs Support Scheme to ensure food sufficiency.
This is aimed at ensuring that sufficient food is available whether the country receives adequate rains or not.
Dr Faka said the region experienced drought in the 2015/16 season, but a warning had been issued six months prior to commencement of the farming season.
The 2016/17 season forecast showed that the region would have normal to above normal rainfall throughout.
But the 2017/18 season is in two distinct parts, which threaten food security and the hydrological system in some areas, while the second part will see some areas getting above normal rains.
“With the trend of normal to above normal rainfall, we can expect for some areas to receive more rains which can lead to flooding,” said Dr Faka.
Good rains this season would also boost Zimbabwe and its northern neighbour Zambia’s hopes for improved inflows into Lake Kariba to support optimum power generation.