Farmers: Believe prophecy forecasting at own risk
Herald 4 September 2017
Jeffrey Gogo Climate Story
The emergency of “prophecy” as a trusted weather and climate forecasting tool has brought Zimbabwe at the crossroads of history.
Three systems are competing for the farmer’s attention: science, indigenous knowledge and Holy Spirit-inspired prophecy.
New research by the University of Zimbabwe (UZ) finds that large numbers of rural farmers were now relying more on prophecies issued at their Churches to guide them on local level rainfall patterns, and with planting.
Since 2010, the research says, farmers have demonstrated strong confidence in the accuracy of these prophecies – which as a matter of fact have come to pass – as trust in meteorological guidance hits rock bottom.
Farmers are convinced their traditional practices provide forecasts that have a 50 percent chance of happening, according to Dr Ignatious Gutsa, the study author. Now there is already an established link between traditional methods of predicting weather and climate, and scientific forecasting.
For example, traditional knowledge believes budding tree leaves during Spring time are a sign of impending rain, according to research. This can be explained scientifically because trees are linked to climatic teleconnections – that interaction between weather patterns in distant places – say experts.
But in a world ruled by empirical evidence, as proof of existence, the same connection has not been made with religion, often dismissed as intangible, superstitious, and even mythical.
Indeed, there is no love lost between religion and science. A senior research scientist with the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) told The Herald Business that farmers who were swayed into believing “prophecy” do so “at their own peril.”
“We have no control over what people may choose to believe,” said the scientist by phone, preferring anonymity. “As scientists, we have always advised that whatever information that anyone may use which is not issued by the MSD do so at their own peril. “For example, if a weather warning on flash flooding is issued, and then someone goes on to cross a flooded river because prophecy says they can cross, we cannot take responsibility when that person is swept away.”
The scientist said “our mandate as given by the Government is to provide weather and climate information to the public.” Anything outside that is guess-work, the climate expert seemed to suggest.
Mutual disbelief
According to Dr Gutsa, the UZ researcher, villagers in Domboshawa would choose prophecy (inspired by the Holy Spirit) over science – and it has worked for them.
It (the Holy Spirit) tells them when it will be a good season with lots of rain as it also tells them when it will be a bad season marked by lack of rain, he said. (See my article of August 28, 2017 titled: “Good prophecy, bad science: Men of God and Climate Predictions” for more information).
One of the elderly women voices speaking in the study mocked the Meteorological Services Department’s forecasts issued out on radio.
“I remember one year, these radio people are guess, guess people,” the voice ridiculed. “There is one year when they said rain is not there, plant early your seeds. Rain was a problem when it did come, maize that was about to be harvested rotted in the fields as the rains were not stopping.”.
It is fascinating mutual disbelief between science and religion, coming, as it does, against the background of forecasts for a rainy season marked by two extremes.
Sadc scientists last week predicted that the 2017-18 rainy season, only a few months away, will both be a season of drought and flooding, urging farmers to plan wisely.
We have not heard yet, from prophecy, as handed out by leaders of the Apostolic Churches cited in the UZ study, over the coming rainy season. If one is not into religion, it is easy to understand why “prophecy forecasting” may not fly with scientists. Often times the prophecy is delivered by the Holy Spirit to just one person through a language that only the individual and the Holy Spirit can understand.
The “prophet” receiving the instruction then goes on to inform thousands of faithfuls about it. Unlike science, there is no tangible proof that what the “prophet” is saying is indeed what the Holy Spirit has tasked them to say, or if it has said anything at all.
It’s a question of faith. It is also true that science has failed to accurately predict other climate and weather events, hence the apparent public distrust. For example, scientists still cannot predict earthquakes, a sudden and violent shaking of the ground caused by waves passing through it. They have a pretty good idea of where an earthquake is most likely to hit, but they still can’t tell when exactly it will happen.
The MSD scientist admitted as much. “We have conducted surveys that show that public trust in scientific weather and climate information is low,” he said.
Prophecy fulfilled
Surely, there must be an explanation for all this, the seeming scientific failure?
There is, as a matter of fact. Lister Dhlakuseni, a Prophet and founder of the Miracles and Deliverance Ministries in Chitungwiza, says the failure by scientists to accurately predict some events demonstrates the power and sovereignty of God over the earth.
He says prophecy based on the Christian Bible has, in the past and present, often been fulfilled. Dhlakuseni sees the disregard of prophecy as rebellion against God, for which mankind is already paying the price through issues disguised as climate change.
“We are living in the last days, that is end times,” warned Dhlakuseni, adding “as such this is simply Bible prophecy being fulfilled, but don’t be alarmed . . . ” Unrelated to Christianity, spirits, weather and climate have fraternised from a long time ago.
Mukwerera, a traditional practice where the spirits of the dead are invoked at special ceremonies through beer, song and dance to make it rain, have often brought rain, according to social scientist Obrien Nyamucherera.
Science and indigenous knowledge might have interacted at some level, but prophecy adds to climate and weather forecasting a new dimension that is as puzzling as it is intriguing.
In the sense that prophecy has no place in neither science nor local knowledge, it might be that the trio converged and began interacting more deeply to deliver a unique package of information in weather and climate forecasting.
God is faithful.