By Farai Mabeza

RENEWED threats from erratic rainfall, high temperatures and persistent fall armyworm infestation have lowered cereal crop production prospects for 2018 in southern Africa, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said.
The season is expected to witness a sharp change from a largely successful 2016/2017 summer cropping season that saw a significant improvement in cereal output across the region. However, the 2016/2017 season was preceded by a poor season characterised by an El Niño induced drought that left the region with a huge cereal deficit.
FAO said in a statement last week that in the absence of consistent rains for the remainder of the season, the dry conditions experienced from December to January would further diminish water supplies for domestic, agricultural and commercial use.
“Prolonged dry spells, erratic rainfall, high temperatures and the presence of the voracious fall armyworm have significantly dampened southern Africa’s current agricultural season’s cereal production prospects. 
“Early action in the form of consolidating information through assessments and anticipatory measures that reduce the impact of threats are crucial for an effective response,” FAO said.
The intermittent rains which the region has experienced in recent years have affected both crop production and pastures.
In some cases, a diametrically opposite situation prevailed, as some parts of Mozambique and Malawi, for example, experienced floods which washed away crops and livestock.
Southern Africa continues to experience severe weather shocks, which have become more pronounced with changes in climate.
The fall armyworm, which first emerged last season, has compounded the situation as it continues to spread within national territories and beyond. The pest is now present across the Southern African Development Community region except Mauritius and Lesotho. 
“FAO concludes that the damage may already have been done. Whether the dry spells continue, or a lot of rainfall is received within a short period, crop production is likely to be negatively affected and consequently, water supplies for human beings and livestock,” FAO’s sub-regional coordinator for southern Africa, David Phiri, said.
A special alert issued by the Food Nutrition and Security Working Group Southern Africa (FNSWG) painted a worrying picture. Many farmers from the region planted late while in some areas of Botswana, southern Mozambique and Zimbabwe they did not plant at all. 
According to the alert, South Africa – the largest producer of white maize in the region – has reported a 22 percent decline in area planted this season.
The poor rains and fall armyworm presence, FNSWG says, have far reaching consequences on access to adequate food and nutrition during the 2018/2019-consumption year. 
Additionally, this will limit income-generating opportunities resulting in far-reaching effects on food and income security gains made in recent years.
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