Despite mixed production prospects at country level, an above-average aggregate cereal output – but still lower than the bumper 2014 harvest – is foreseen for Sadc in 2015.

Late and uneven rains in the last quarter of 2014 delayed planting and hindered early crop development.

While rains improved from mid-December, excessive precipitation in mid-January and the passing of Cyclone Chedza caused flooding in parts of Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar. Forecasts for March and April indicate a higher probability of normal to above-normal rains, but an increased likelihood of below normal rains is expected in south-western areas, including some parts of the large producing provinces of South Africa.

In South Africa, the largest grain producer in Sadc, moisture deficits affected crop conditions in parts of Free State and Northwest provinces, which contribute to nearly two-thirds of the national output.

Prospects are now poor with early forecasts pointing to a 35 percent decrease in white maize yields (commercial sector) in 2015 compared to the above-average crop of the previous year.

Although resumption of rains in late February somewhat helped improve conditions, preliminary forecasts point to an aggregate 2015 maize crop of around 10 million tonnes, well below the bumper production of 2013.

The heavy rains in January resulted in floods across several countries in eastern parts of the region.

An estimated 87 000, 64 000 and 87 000 hectares of cropped land were flooded in central Mozambique, southern Malawi, and eastern and western Madagascar, respectively.

Assessments are still ongoing to determine the full extent of the damage and assistance is being provided, including the supply of seeds for secondary season crops, to be harvested from August.

This is expected to partly mitigate the localised crop losses if the secondary season performs satisfactorily.

Elsewhere in the region, the improved rains since December helped reverse early seasonal water deficits and crop conditions are generally favourable. However, in northern Namibia and southern Angola and Madagascar, poor rains continued in January and February resulting in an extended dry period that is likely to result in localised crop losses and lower cereal production. – Fewsnet