Food insecurity to worsen
By Tabitha Mutenga, Features and Supplements Editor
Rural food insecurity prevalence in June 2016 was estimated at six percent and is projected to reach 42 percent during the peak of the hunger period (January to March 2017).
ZIMBABWE’s food insecure population in the rural areas will increase from 2,8 million to 4,1 million people during the peak of the hunger period from January to March 2017, according to the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) report.
This translates to approximately 42 percent of rural households, representing a rise of 44 percent compared to the lean season assessment results of February 2016.
This would be the highest rural food insecurity prevalence since 2009.
Rural food insecurity prevalence in June 2016 was estimated at six percent and is projected to reach 42 percent during the peak of the hunger period (January to March 2017).
“This is the highest rural food insecurity prevalence estimates since 2009. It is 40 percent higher than that for the 2015/16 years which was 30 percent during the peak hunger period. This food insecurity prevalence translates to about 4,1 million rural people compared to three million for the previous consumption year. This projected food security situation is made assuming that government and the private sector will, once more, collaborate to import maize enough to fill the 2016 cereal (maize, sorghum and millets) harvest deficit estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation Development at 964 032 tonnes,” the ZimVAC report said.
“As expected, there is a progressive increase in the proportion of food insecure households as the consumption year progresses toward the peak hunger period.”
The ZimVAC report said that most parts of the southern region that normally receive poor rainfall, had received significantly below normal rainfall resulting in widespread crop failure and subdued grazing development.
Mediocre to average crop performance had been experienced in some areas in the central and northern parts of the country.
In Matabeleland North, 57 percent of the population is expected to be food insecure, while about 50 percent will be vulnerable in Masvingo and 48 percent in the Midlands. These provinces are projected to have the highest food insecure populations, while Mashonaland West is projected to have the least proportion of food insecure households at 23 percent.
At least 20 districts are projected to have more than 50 percent of their households having inadequate means to meet their food needs without resorting to severe livelihood consumption coping strategies.
“Given the level of food insecurity obtaining in the rural areas, the government and its development partners should consider continuing with food assistance programmes with plans to upscale these earlier in the consumption year than usual,” ZimVAC said.
“Food assistance programmes should be continued to reflect the current food insecurity estimates and they should have built–in strategies to scale-up in tandem with the projected increase in food insecurity prevalence. About 380 000 tonnes of maize or an equivalent assortment of food stuffs that can provide the same amount of energy is needed to close the projected food gap of the food insecure households.”
The2015/2016 El Nino weather phenomenon had a negative impact on the nation’s food security situation.
The food insecurity situation worsened because the country was experiencing its second consecutive drought year of below average maize production.
Development agencies have indicated that the 2015/2016 maize production would not cover more than three months of domestic consumption requirements, although harvesting is still ongoing.
Besides maize crop failure especially in the southern regions of the country, cattle deaths are estimated to have reached 25 000 between October 2015 and March 2016.
The El Nino induced drought that ravaged Zimbabwe and many other Southern African Development Community countries, highlighted, once more, the importance and urgency of efforts to build resilience against climate variability and climate change amongst the rural populations of Zimbabwe. These efforts include stepping up the promotion of climate-smart agriculture, water harvesting and irrigation development in the most drought prone areas,” the report said.
“Livestock drought mitigation strategies need to be prioritised in areas that suffered the most from the El Nino induced drought where livestock makes the most significant contribution to household livelihoods. The mitigation strategies include the provision of subsidised livestock feeds and animal drugs and facilitating access to relief grazing.”
While the drought has impacted on the entire country weather forecasts are predicting that there is a high chance that a La Nina event will occur by late 2016.
For Southern Africa, La Nina is generally associated with above average rainfall during the period (December to March) particularly in the southern half of the region. The prediction of La Nina implies an increased risk of floods in Zimbabwe especially in the flood prone areas.