Erratic rains forecast for 2018/19 season

Elita Chikwati, Harare Bureau
ZIMBABWE is expected to receive normal rains with a bias towards below normal throughout the 2018/19 season, Government has announced.

The Meteorological Services Department said this implies the country will receive erratic rains during the 2018/19 season.

Presenting the 2018/19 seasonal rainfall forecast at the National Climate Outlook forum in Harare yesterday, Ambassador Grace Mutandiro said the weather and climate information was important for stakeholders to adequately plan and make informed decisions and plan their activities.

“The 2018/19 rainfall season is pointing towards an El Nino phase. El-Nino is associated with above average warming of the sea surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean and in most years is usually associated with reduced rainfall activity over the sub region.

“We are informed by science that approximately 62 percent of EL-Nino phases have resulted in below normal rainfall in Zimbabwe leaving us with less than 40 percent chance of good rains during this coming season. Researchers have found out that not all El Nino years will result in drought.

“As we are all aware that our agriculture sector forms an integral part of our economy and is mostly rain fed. In the last year agriculture contributed 10,46 percent to the economy, and we know potentially it can employ up to 70 percent of the population and contribute to 60 percent of our raw materials to industry so our meeting should be taken in that context of the national economic wellbeing,” she said.

Ambassador Mutandiro paid tribute to Government partners who collaborate with the Ministry technically and financially in assisting stakeholders to successfully prepare for the season and strengthen the national early warning systems.

According to the Meteorological services Department meteorologist Mr James Ngoma the 2018/19 rainfall season is expected to be erratic in space and time. He said the forecast was for total seasonal rainfall amount.

“October rains are generally erratic for rain-fed agriculture, more meaningful rains normally begin at the end of November into December.

“It will be prudent to put in place measures for an early cloud seeding programme in light of the expected erratic rainfall season throughout the country,” he said.

Mr Ngoma said in view of the moisture availability and suitable temperature thresholds, those with irrigation facilities should not wait for the main rains to fall. They can plant any time now, taking into account the high temperature needed for germination.

“Violent storms, prolonged dry spells, flash floods and tropical cyclones cannot be ruled out as the season progresses. There is need to continue with water harvesting programmes.

“The policies of small dam construction and borehole drilling or deepening, conservation and protection of wetlands should continue, more so in the Southern provinces of the country.

“Application of fertilisers should be guided by the 10-day weather forecasts and advice from agricultural authorities,” he said.