The outbreak has affected Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi

THE outbreak of the fall armyworm in three of southern Africa’s maize growing countries is expected to severely affect the regions’ food security.

The outbreak has affected Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi and follows a crippling El-Nino-triggered drought which left most of the countries in the region in need of food aid last year.

The region was hoping to recover from the devastating drought, which can be traced back to the 2015 agricultural season. The drought was driven by one of the strongest El-Nino events in the last 35 years.
Experts in the region have indicated that the pest may also wreak havoc in Namibia after the Namibian media published an article last week indicating that farmers in the Omusati region were likely to lose 50 percent of their crops to a chemical-resistant African armyworm infestation.
“They are saying that it is African armyworm, but if it is feeding on the maize cobs then it must be the fall armyworm,” African armyworm expert, Ken Wilson, said.
Armyworms are among the most devastating migratory pests known to cause extensive damage particularly to maize. They are reported to be second only to locusts in terms of the extent of their crop damage.
“The fall armyworm feeds on non-cereal crops, including beans and peas, which make these latest outbreaks even more serious, as smallholder farmers could lose all of their crops due to armyworms.
“We have seen already, I think, that vast amounts of maize cropping land has been affected, 120 000 hectares in Zambia, 20 000 hectares in Malawi. I do not have figures for Zimbabwe yet but the outbreak is going to impact on food security in the region,” Wilson said.
Experts in Zimbabwe are still conducting an assessment on the damage caused by the outbreak.
Forecasts for the next six weeks from the Armyworm Network indicate that African armyworm outbreaks are likely to continue in Malawi and Zimbabwe and could appear in other countries in the region during the forecast period. They could gradually decline towards the end of the outlook period.
“Fall armyworm is likely to continue appearing, attacking maize and causing damage to kernels as seed development occurs,” the Network said.
Indications on the ground are that the region is battling both the African armyworm and the fall armyworm.
“It is highly unlikely that we will ever be able to eradicate either of these pests, partly because they are so widespread and migratory. The African armyworm has regular outbreaks throughout the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, but especially on the eastern half of the continent from the Yemen down to South Africa. The adult moth stages of the armyworms are highly migratory and can fly several hundreds of kilometres during their short lives. This occurs at every generation, at approximately monthly intervals, which make tracking their movement, and hence control efforts very difficult.
“If outbreaks have increased in frequency in Zimbabwe, it might well be associated with changing weather patterns associated with El Nino, La Nina and global climate change. Outbreaks are largely determined by the seasonal patterns of wind (which determines migration routes) and rainfall,” Wilson added.
In the 2017 National Budget, government had projected a 12 percent growth in agriculture driven by maize, tobacco and cotton.
Projected output for maize is about 1,5 million tonnes up from 511 000 tonnes and 205 million kilogrammes of tobacco up from 202 million kilogrammes the previous year.
Cotton output is expected to be 100 000 tonnes up from an estimated output of 30 000 tonnes.
The fact that the fall armyworm is a new pest to the region poses extra challenges as it will take a bit of time before farmers and other stakeholders are able to manage the outbreak.
Management of armyworm requires control in the early stages following detection to reduce the rate of recurrence. Control is largely by use of pesticides, but the pest can become resistant to chemicals.
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