IMPROVING FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE – INNOVATIVE ECONOMIC AND TRADE SYSTEMS
CHARLES TAFFS
President – Commercial Farmers Union – Zimbabwe
Introduction
This paper provides a broad overview of the key economic and trade issues related to climate change. While agriculture is highly dependent on climatic conditions farming can also bring about harmful changes in weather patterns. Therefore there is a great need for farmers to learn about climatic change its causes and its effects.
How Agriculture contributes to climatic change
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the three main causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture.
Agriculture impacts directly on climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide through practices relating to crop production and animal husbandry.. Secondly, by being a significant user of land it causes changes to the Earth’s land cover, which in turn alters its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light. Thirdly agriculture is a significant consumer of fossil fuels,
According to the World Bank, agriculture currently emits about 14% of the global green house emissions directly, and indirectly another 17%.. Agricultural processes comprise 54% of methane emissions, roughly 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, and virtually all carbon dioxide emissions tied to land use.
Agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways:
· Carbon dioxide releases linked to deforestation
· Methane releases from rice cultivation
· Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle
· Nitrous oxide releases chiefly from fertilizer use
When forests and woodlands are cleared to make room for fields and pastures, it can result in either warming or cooling effects, depending on local conditions. Deforestation affects regional carbon uptake, which can result in increased concentrations of carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas.
Land-clearing methods such as slash and burn compound these effects by burning bio-matter, which directly releases greenhouse gases and soot into the air.
Climatic Change Impact on Agriculture
Global warming is projected to have significant effects on environments affecting agriculture. Besides rising temperatures, the effects on rainfall, glacial run-off, and carbon dioxide emissions must also be considered. Taken together these conditions all determine the capacity to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals within the various regions of the planet.
The world is already beginning to experience the effects of climate change. This is demonstrated by rising temperatures and increasing rainfall variability, more notably a greater frequency and longer periods of drought,
Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Higher temperatures may also reduce yields of crops by encouraging weed and pest proliferation.
Population growth pressures and declining productivity of existing arable and pasture lands is likely to lead to the expansion of marginal lands. This is already taking place in many parts of the world. In less developed countries where lower yielding traditional agricultural systems are still practiced changing climatic conditions will result in these practices becoming increasingly unsustainable and force farmers to adopt better production technologies.
Even diversified livelihood systems with a livestock component are expected to become more vulnerable which poses a major threat to economies and livelihoods, especially in countries that have heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
There will be gains for certain crops in some regions of the world, but nevertheless the overall impact of climate change on agriculture is expected to be negative, threatening global food security.
General Economic Factors to be Considered
According to the World Bank the world population has reached seven billion people. By 2050 there will be more than nine billion people in the world. Agriculture production must increase by 70% in order to feed the growing population.
It is estimated that in 2080 about 760 million people will be undernourished. Regional differences between developed countries generally benefiting from climate change, and developing countries where crop production is projected to decline considerably are likely to widen through time, leading to significant polarization with a substantial increase in risk of hunger among the poorest countries.
Climatic change impact on agricultural trade
Not many countries achieve full self sufficiency in staple food production and trade in food products is the norm. Hence, food availability within a country is dependent on the quantities produced domestically, the overall cost of imports, and foreign exchange generated from exports used to pay for food imports. Climate change could affect all three of these variables. .
Climate change affects agricultural output through its impact on yields and the availability of land and water. As these change the comparative advantages of producing agricultural commodities in different parts of the world are also expected to change and alter trade flows.
Indications are that as temperatures rise the production potential in mid to higher latitudes of the planet will improve and will decrease in the tropical and semi-tropical latitudes. The comparative advantage for producing cereals and livestock products is predicted to shift towards developed countries, and net food imports of developing countries is forecast to increase by about 25%. This shift will lead to greater flows of cereals and livestock products from exporting countries in the higher latitudes to those in the tropical regions.
Thus, international trade is regarded as an important factor to compensate for falling yields in tropical and semi-tropical latitudes. Trade has a mitigating role to play in enabling the flow of agricultural products from surplus to deficit regions.
However there is a negative aspect to a growing dependence of developing countries on imports. These countries are generally poorer than those situated in the higher latitudes. Climatic change affecting global food availability will affect food prices, and if world food supplies fall prices will rise to the disadvantage of importing nations.
Unexpected adverse climatic events that occur in major exporting nations can set into motion large price hikes in world markets. Also where their food security is threatened these same countries may adopt restrictive trade policies. Prices are also affected when a group of countries collectively producing a large share of world supply of a particular commodity form a cartel to maximize their earnings from exports. These unwarranted trade practices need to be avoided.
Agricultural trade rules need to be drawn up that cater for climate change. There needs to be an open trade regime for food commodities without any distortions like export subsidies and other incentives.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture and its “Green Box” rules on harmonizing border tariffs and removing trade barriers are a good starting point for forming equitable practices for international trade in agricultural products. These rules need to be flexible to accommodate any future alterations arising from climate change developments.
A level playing field in agricultural trade will emerge when trading partners adhere to these rules.
Investing in Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)
Agriculture currently has the reputation of being a major source of climate change. Climate smart agriculture (CSA) seeks to change this unfavorable perception by emphasizing the role that agriculture can play in curbing the more negative facets caused by some farming practices. It stresses the need for innovative approaches to tackling climate change.
CSA defines an agriculture “green” concept that sustainably increases productivity, resilience, reduces green house gases, and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals. The focus is to maximize farm output in a changing climate. This is to be done by promoting the adoption of agricultural best practices related to:-
· Integrated crop – livestock management
· Intercropping and crop rotations to reduce pest and disease risks
· Conservation agriculture through minimum or no-tillage
· Irrigation development
· Water management
· Greater investment in agricultural research
· Research into drought and flood tolerant crops
· Extension and technical support
· Improved seeds
· Efficient fertilizer management
· Adequate storage facilities
· Better weather forecasting and early warning systems
· Risk insurance
· Agro – forestry
Farmers must have incentives to embrace CSA. These should either be in the form of direct financial inducements or in terms of significant gains in productivity. Smallholder farmers in developing countries do not have the resources to invest heavily in their land and therefore labour intensive farming methods which are low input resulting in increased output are more applicable to their needs. Major public investments may be required to launch the adoption of new technologies and practices. Initially these farmers would need financial support and better access to inputs. Infrastructure like roads and marketing facilities may have to be built to support the development process. Training of farmers is also a very important element.
Conclusion
Current agricultural practices contribute greatly to changing weather patterns. Innovative agricultural policies and actions must be adopted to alleviate the effects of global warming