ZIMBABWE’s maize production may drop by more about 50% this season due to a January dry spell that rendered the early planted crop a complete write-off, farming industry players and forecasters said.

Last year, Zimbabwe produced 2,1 million tonnes of the staple grain, more than its 1,8 million tonne annual requirements. A bad season this year could see the country, which imported close to one million tonnes in 2017 after a disastrous 2016/17 cropping season, requiring similarly costly imports next year.
The grain imports between 2015 and 2016 have worsened Zimbabwe’s current account and compounded the dollarised country’s bank note shortages.
Assessments by stakeholders in the industry indicate that at least 30 percent of the crop can so far be declared a complete write-off.
A further 20 percent of the crop had a 50-50 chance of survival if the recently received rains continue, according to a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Farming industry players warned that output could fall below one million tonnes based on the performance of the 2018 rainfall season, less than half of the annual target of at least two million tonnes.
The erratic rains received at the start of the season resulted in the wilting of the early planted crop.
The on-going dry conditions and high temperatures have led to reduced production prospects in most of the country, with the impact more severe in the southern parts of the country than the northern parts.
Ground reports suggest that the late planted crops are more likely to recover with the latest increase in rainfall received beginning of this month.
However, more rains are required for the late planted crop to survive.
“It is too early to say, but definitely 30 percent of the crop is a complete write off. It could be more,” Commercial Farmers Union acting director, Ben Gilpin, said.
“As farmers, the mid-season dry spell is an expected occurrence, but this year it extended to over three weeks, while the temperatures were too high, spelling disaster for early planted crops that were already tasselling and needed water,” Gilpin said.
Wonder Chabikwa, president of the Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union, said they could not give figures until an assessment by government. However, he admitted there was a lot of crop failure due to poor rains.
“From our own observations, yes part of the crop can be said to be a write-off; but we are also waiting for the Ministry (of Agriculture)’s professional assessment of the situation,” Chabikwa said.
“The crop was affected at different levels of maturity and it is likely to affect the potential output anticipated at the beginning of the planting season,” he said.
The mid-season dry spell in January raised fears of a possible drought not only in Zimbabwe, but across the region, with Zambia slashing the projected output from over three million tonnes to 1,8 million tonnes.
Erratic rainfall and dry conditions persisted across the country from October to January and every province received below-average and poorly distributed rainfall. The abnormal dryness and high temperatures resulted in severe moisture stress for most crops.
Stakeholders in the industry said the whole country had been affected, although there were some few areas that could get a good crop even if yields were expected to decline.
The below-average season that has been experienced so far is likely to affect yields, which were expected to top last year’s production of 2,1 million tonnes.
Under the Presidential Input Scheme, which was responsible for producing the bulk of the grain last season, government was targeting 720 000 hectares.
The beneficiaries of the input scheme produced 770 000 tonnes of maize.
Carryover grain stocks last month showed that the country had 1,2 million tonnes of grain, one million tonnes being maize.
During the 2015/2016 season Zimbabwe imported about 800 000 tonnes of maize from Mexico, Zambia, Mauritius, United Kingdom, Russia and Mozambique.
The surviving crop is also said to have been attacked by a serious outbreak of the fall armyworm, a new invasive insect pest that attacked crops last season and has now spread across all provinces. The pest multiplies very quickly and attacks a variety of crops, but primarily it prefers maize and sorghum, causing a lot of damage to the leaves and seed kernels of crops in the field.
The voracious pest is threatening to cause a food crisis. Last year, after the outbreak of the pest, entomologists warned that the pest would likely recur seasonally, as it was not feasible to eradicate it. Yield reduction estimates last year ranged from five percent to 15 percent due to the pest.
[email protected]