Look forward, not backwards
April 21, 2013 in Editorial, Opinion
Zimbabwe has a US$10 billion economy, while the global economy is pegged at
US$700 trillion; a speck of dust on a megalith. Economically, Zimbabwe lags
behind most countries in sub-Saharan Africa including Mozambique. If
Zimbabwe puts all its ducks in a row, it will overtake Mozambique’s gross
domestic product (GDP) by 2015, that of Botswana by 2018, Zambia by 2022,
Tanzania by 2026 and that of Angola by 2040.
Report by Nevanji Madanhire
Zimbabwe needn’t be where it is; it should be closer to Angola than
Mozambique, GDP-wise. It is this realisation that should have sobered us as
we celebrated 33 years of independence. More than at any other time, this
sad fact must have awakened us to the reality that we should face forward
rather than backward.
In one of his great books, Dambudzo Marechera describes a scene in which a
dwarf approaches a giant and sneeringly tells the giant that he was walking
on a big crutch. The giant proudly looks himself up and down and tells the
dwarf that he wasn’t holding any crutch, upon which the dwarf says, “Your
mind!”
Listening to radio in the run-up to the Independence Day festivities, one
would have been amazed at how every speech and how every announcer was
encouraging listeners to look backward. Every programme was about the war of
liberation, which ended all those three decades ago. Old combatants were
dusted up and hauled before the mics to extol the virtue of their courage.
Granted, the war is an important part of our history, but it should not
continue to fetter our thinking.
Like the giant encumbered by his mind, Zimbabwe is also shackled by this
giant crutch — its history.
Africa has of late been described as the continent of the future. The
Economist has said so, and so have other reputable publications and
economists. It is projected that Africa will begin to grow at breakneck
speed and in the near future could equal the Asian Tigers, if not overtake
them. It has been projected that by 2048 Zimbabwe would have overtaken
Singapore, Egypt and Greece in GDP but the projection is conditional on a
change of outlook.
While other countries in the region are looking forward and figuring out how
they can maximise on the new-found optimism, Zimbabwe continues to pride
itself in the past, citing its “historic land reform programme” and its
sovereignty.
The possession of land should not be an end in itself. The land has to be
productive. More than 10 years after the redistribution of the land,
productivity still remains low and the country is importing food from
countries which it fed 15 years ago. Lots of land is lying fallow, yet the
land is the only sure asset that can turn round our economy. Instead of
harping on how we repossessed it, a forward-looking leadership should look
at how it can be used commercially to raise our GDP.
Many analysts have said Zimbabwe is not mineral rich, it’s only mineral
diverse. It has a bit of everything. There is justifiable excitement about
diamond fields in Marange and goldfields which seem to be everywhere. Then
there is the platinum reserves which political guesstimates say will last
400 years. But the value of all those minerals cannot be compared to the
value land has the potential to produce. Food shortages are going to hit the
world hard in the next few years, that’s a scenario we should begin to
anticipate by investing in the productive use of the land. Minerals get
exhausted with time, indeed, analysts are beginning to see beyond the
diamonds, which they say will all have been dug up in the next few years.
Alternatives to platinum are already being invented around the world, so our
400-year reserves might soon come to nought.
Besides optimal utilisation of the land, what other future-oriented issues
should we have begun to interrogate as we celebrated our 33rd anniversary?
In their book, The Fastest Billion, Charles Robertson and others, have
looked at the drivers of Africa’s growth. The most important thing they and
others interested in Africa have seen is that the continent is becoming more
democratic. All countries which are making great leaps forward are enjoying
democratic governance. Zimbabwe is hampered by its democratic deficit.
Democracy ensures that a country has among other things, better government
finances and better fiscal policies.
In Zimbabwe we have seen the lack of transparency characterising diamond
revenue and other sources of income. This lack of openness is born out of an
undemocratic governmental system which doesn’t open itself up to public
scrutiny. The country’s fiscal policies are almost non-existent due to the
lack of a national currency.
What ought to be exercising our minds at the moment is how we can
re-establish our national currency, but this will begin only with
accountability as far as the exploitation of our national resources are
concerned.
Tonnes upon tonnes of our gold are smuggled out of the country every year
and the finger points at corruption in high places as the main driver of
this illicit trade in the precious mineral. No one really knows what is
happening at the diamond mines. What is visible is the increase in the
number of the newly rich. Good governance will ensure all holes are plugged
and our mineral wealth, though very finite, leads our economic growth. It
will also weed out corruption.
In the information age we live in, surely the concept of sovereignty has
been redefined. It’s really no longer about borders and isolation. This is
shown by how the major drivers of economic growth in Africa have been
services more than minerals and farming combined. Telecoms have been the
major driver, so have been banking services.
But all these drivers thrive in an environment that makes doing business
easy. Zimbabwe needs foreign direct investment but this will not come in an
environment of the uncertainty created by bad or unclear investment
policies.
Zimbabwe is generally a young population, this demographic fact can be used
fruitfully to develop the country. Instead of using our youths to kill each
other at political bases, we better redirect their energy towards national
development. Education becomes a crucial factor. A significant drop has been
recorded in the country’s literacy levels. This has to be corrected as
quickly as possible so the youth’s energy can be harnessed for development.
In less than 20 years, Zimbabwe will celebrate its golden jubilee; there
will be precious little to show for it as each new year sees us look further
into the mists of the past. Each Independence Day takes us back to a
romanticised past rather than to the mountain where the sun should rise.