EDITORIAL COMMENT: Measures vital to limit impact of negative forecast
Chronicle 29 August 2017
We have been forewarned in reasonable time that the 2017/18 rainy season might not be good enough for successful crop production.
A regional weather outlook released last week by the Sadc Climate Services Centre (CSC) says governments in the bloc should prepare for low rainfall in the first part of the hydrological season and excessive rainfall in the second half that might cause flooding.
The CSC has projected normal to below normal rains from October to November this year and normal to above normal rains from January to March 2018.
Sadc climate experts attending the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in Gaborone, Botswana last week called for careful planning to ensure food security and disaster preparedness in the event of little rain causing drought and too much of it causing flooding.
Dr Nsadisa Faka, the CSC coordinator, however, observed that the regional outlook should be broken down to national level by respective departments of meteorology for more accuracy.
“Generally, the forecast is going to be normal to below normal for the first part of the season,” he said. “That is October, November to December and normal to above normal for January, February and March 2018. However, the details will be provided by each member state because at the Sadc level we are giving a regional scale.”
We await a statement from the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe, expected to meet this week, on prospects for the season, but we don’t anticipate much in the other direction as CSC’s forecasts have tended to be correct in recent years. For example, when the region experienced drought in the 2015/16 season, the CSC had issued a warning to that effect six months earlier. It issued a forecast before the 2016/17 season that the region would have normal to above normal rainfall throughout and that is what happened.
With this not-so-encouraging prognosis already out, our Government, farmers, inputs suppliers and other stakeholders need to put in place measures to lessen the impact of the inclement weather conditions on national food security.
However, we must state that our country is unlikely to face as much hunger as we did last year because individual households and the country at large will have carryover stocks from this year’s bountiful season. Official estimates are that the country will reap at least 2,1 million tonnes of cereals, with the strategic grain reserve that must hold 500 000 tonnes of food, already full.
Therefore we don’t foresee any dire consequences yet.
But those farmers who harvested more than they need for this year should not sell the surplus given the negative forecast. They are advised to hold on to it in case the 2017/18 season turns out to be too dry initially and too wet later to precipitate poor harvests. For their surplus stocks to take them through to the 2019 harvesting period, households should store their grain under the best possible conditions to preserve its quality and edibility over an extended period of time.
Since we already have an idea that the start of the 2017/18 hydrological season might be dry, our farmers should be encouraged to start buying, and prepare to plant small grains and, if they decide on maize, plant short season varieties. These tend to do well in drier conditions. This will enable farmers to reap something instead of going ahead growing only maize and long season varieties of the crop that stand no chance of survival in the projected scorching sun.
Yes the Government has been putting in place measures to enhance irrigation farming in the country. Equipment has been coming in from Brazil and Belarus and farmers are acquiring it for installation at their properties. Individual farmers are benefitting, the same for institutional growers and community irrigation schemes. The impending difficult agricultural season should encourage the Government and farmers to speed up the importation, local procurement and installation programmes so that if the rains don’t fall as already forecast growers can still produce under irrigation.
Also, we have the Command Agriculture scheme that was initiated last year with special focus on growers who have irrigation facilities. About $400 million has been budgeted for the forthcoming season, up from $162 million last season. By August 16, at least 44 900 farmers had registered to put 202 000 hectares of land under maize and soya beans under dryland and irrigated production. We expect more to sign up but would we suggest in view of the anticipated low rainfall, that more emphasis must be on those who have irrigation facilities and capacity to irrigate.
With the threat for flooding, the Civil Protection Unit, the armed forces and other strategic institutions should plan well ahead of time for them to be able to respond accordingly if disaster strikes. We are in August and according to the outlook, floods may occur from January 2018, which is about five months from now. This is enough for the CPU and its partners to harness resources for effective disaster response. Thus, there is absolutely no reason why anyone should be taken by surprise.
Through its various arms and communication channels, the Government should to spread the message right across the country for farmers to adjust their plantings in relation to the adverse forecast.
Our suggestions on how the country can mitigate against possible difficulty in the 2017/18 agricultural season are, needless to say, by no means exhaustive. As such much more can be done to achieve the same, fundamental goal, that of preserving national food security.