The bulk of Southern African Development Community is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.

THE Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-21) has forecast a slow start to this year’s summer rainfall season.
With less than a month to the start of the 2017/2018 agricultural season, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) climate experts predicted normal to below normal rainfall for the first half of the season, which may negatively affect the country’s agricultural season.
The country experienced good rains during the 2016/17 rainfall season, putting the country on course to revive its once vibrant agricultural economy. Local weather experts have said the SARCOF report showed neutral conditions that could go either way.
Meteorological Services Department director, Amos Makarau said in terms of agriculture planning the forecast was favourable for a good harvest as long as inputs are made available in time.
“The unusual rains received last year, should not be used as a benchmark for the coming season. Reliable rains for crop production should be expected as from mid-November. As for now, weather patterns show erratic rains at the start of the season in October and November and the rainfall amounts usually cannot be used for agricultural purposes,” Makarau said.
The country is still too dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is practised by the bulk of the small scale farmers, who are the backbone of the country’s food growers.
Irrigation infrastructure is currently in dire need of rehabilitation, with government planning to increase irrigable land from around 150 000 hectares to 300 000 hectares in the next three years.
Last week, SARCOF announced in Botswana that the 2017/2018 rainfall season would receive less rain compared to the above-normal rainfall the region experienced the previous season.
“The bulk of Southern African Development Community is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period from October to December 2017 and normal to above-normal rainfall for the January to March 2018 (period),” the report said.
“The climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence our climate over the SADC region. In particular, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is currently in its neutral phase. The ENSO is projected to continue in the neutral phase during the entire forecast period with some models predicting neutral with a tendency of weak La Niña, while most models predict neutral with a tendency towards weak El Nino,” the forum added.
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