Zim in Catch 22 situation over mulled elections
http://www.theindependent.co.zw/
Friday, 24 September 2010 09:18
ZIMBABWE’S business organisations, labour and politicians could be in a
catch 22 situation as tension around holding next year’s general election
hots up.
The Employers’ Confederation of Zimbabwe (Emcoz) — a grouping of
employers — became the first business organisation to appeal to President
Robert Mugabe, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and his deputy Arthur
Mutambara to put in place a five year moratorium to an early poll planned
for next May. For them, economic recovery and national healing should take
precedence over elections.
Fear of politically motivated violence stands as the main reason for not
holding elections among business and civil society organisations. For
business, elections would reverse economic gains credited to the inclusive
government formed last year. Analysts say the pro-liberal coalition helped
Zimbabwe’s economy grow by 5% last year — the first recorded expansion
since 1998.
Capacity utilisation for local industries which had plunged to below 10% at
the height of hyperinflation two years ago rose to an average 40% since the
formation of the coalition.
Daniel Ndlela, a renowned economist, says the country could be in a dilemma
as financial aid inflows are reduced to a trickle, with Western governments
pinning more pledges on political reforms.
“The nation is in a Catch 22 situation because of vested interests in the
status quo. It’s a dilemma. One could sympathise with business because of
the uncertainty that comes with the elections,” Ndlela said.
“The economy could be crippled after the election. But from a politician’s
point of view, an election could be an opportunity to unlock the value of
Zimbabwe. Already no inflows have been coming because of the impasse in the
coalition.”
He said although credible polls could unlock problems in the coalition
government, the election could again come at a cost. Treasury estimates that
the referendum and general election – estimated at US$200 million – would be
way above monthly government revenue.
“Again because of the intransigence of the other party (Zanu PF) it looks
like an election is the only way, which again comes at a cost. For example,
the high cost of the election of US$200 million could limit any chances of a
pay rise to the civil service, given the current performance of the economy”,
he said.
Deon Theron, the rotating chairman of the Business Council of Zimbabwe
contends that a new legitimate government could restore waning business
confidence in the Southern African state. He said partners in the inclusive
government should demonstrate their commitment to holding an internationally
accepted poll. This could be asking too much from President Robert Mugabe,
whose party believes that Zimbabwe is under siege from an invisible hand
seeking “regime change”.
“We need stability in the country. The Global Political Agreement has not
fully restored confidence among investors. So, we feel that we should have
elections as soon as possible but the current situation is not conducive for
a free and fair election,” Theron said.
“We have a lot of work to do before we can have an election under
internationally accepted standards. It’s possible when politicians show
extreme commitment in having a free and fair election.”
Theron who is also the Commercial Farmers Union president — an organisation
of white commercial farmers whose properties were expropriated during the
land reform exercise undertaken in 2000 — hopes the new government would
bring to finality cases of 198 commercial farmers being prosecuted in court
for illegal occupation of their farms. The challenge for the new government,
he noted, would be the restoration of property rights.
Lovemore Matombo, president of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, admits
that holding elections next year under the current political environment is
not ideal. But he says an appeal by Emcoz to push the polls to 2015 is
exploitative to downtrodden workers struggling to eke out a living.
“Generally we would want an election to be held as quickly as possible but
we feel that any poll held without Sadc supervision is likely to be
contested,” Matombo said.
“What employers are saying (the moratorium) is that lets continue to exploit
workers for the next five years because they are making profits. The retail
sector, for example, is making a lot of money. So as labour we would have
expected companies to increase salaries in line with capacity utilisation
which rose from below 10% in 2008 to an average of 40% currently. So the
status quo is benefiting them.”
He claimed that although Zanu PF has publicly announced its readiness for
the polls, most government ministers inclined to the party were benefiting
from the current economic environment.
“We want Sadc to supervise and monitor the next election because you cannot
have two antagonists being in power for the next five years. One of the
parties might be consumed,” Matombo warned.
Bernard Mpofu