Luanda was a Game Changer
During the struggle to restore democracy and respect for basic rights in
Zimbabwe over the past 12 years, we can point to many significant events
that have changed the game on the field in a significant way. I can think of
some and here are selected items: The referendum and elections in 2000 when
Zanu PF suddenly woke up to the fact that they were being challenged and had
almost lost their grip on power. That gave rise to the “total onslaught” on
the MDC and the Commercial farmers and their staff.
Then came the 2002 Presidential elections when Mr. Mugabe lost the election
and the South Africans, working with the security chiefs here, conspired to
deny Mr. Tsvangirai victory. This brought the South African presidency,
diplomatic service and others into the game, in an effort to deny MDC any
chance of gaining the upper hand.
Then it was the split in the MDC leadership in 2005, when Mr. Mbeki tried to
control the process of change in Zimbabwe and force the MDC into a unity
government. When this failed the next critical point was the declaration in
December 2006 that Zimbabwe would hold harmonised elections in June 2010;
that galvanized the South Africans to engage and this led to the
negotiations that have now been running for 5 years. The most immediate
result was the Kariba Agreement which laid the foundation for a first
attempt at a free and fair election.
The March 2008 election; where Zanu was finally beaten and again Mr. Mbeki
was forced to go to extraordinary lengths to prevent Mr. Tsvangirai taking
power. This intervention led to the runoff, the second series of
negotiations and the GPA signing ceremony in September 2008. This was
followed by the formation of the GNU in February and, as they say in
political literature, the rest is history.
In the subsequent struggle for ascendancy between the MDC and Zanu PF, Zanu
PF has had to fight a rear guard action all the way – constantly being
harassed by the other political parties and the region which has been
growing increasingly impatient with their delaying tactics. At the Troika
Summit in Livingstone in May 2011, for the first time, the region took the
gloves off and laid into Zanu PF, calling on them to fulfill their
obligations under the GPA or else.
A year has passed and now another Troika Summit, this time in Luanda, Angola
where the region confirmed their position on the GPA and reiterated that no
further delays of procrastination in the process would be accepted. In a
clear statement the SADC Summit communiqué stated three things:
1. They would not allow Zanu PF to call an election without the agreement of
the other Parties to the GPA and the Facilitator;
2. They would accept no significant deviations from the GPA;
3. They gave the President of South Africa complete support in his role as
the facilitator and enforcer.
This was a major game changer – perhaps the most significant since 1999 as
it comes against the background of the diminishing electoral support for
Zanu PF in all areas of the country and the declining health of Mr. Mugabe
who simply cannot be seriously taken as a likely candidate for an election
in late 2013.
The result is a nightmare for Zanu PF. They are now forced to confront the
issue of succession in their Party, something they have been trying to avoid
for the past 15 years or more. Mr. Mugabe has been at the very centre of
their political lives for so long that life after him seems difficult and
nasty. The competition for succession has dissolved what used to be a
coherent and united Party into several factions, some of whom appear to be
ready to even fight each other.
Furthermore, they know by how much they lost the 2002 election and the 2008
election and they know their sun is not rising. They have been told by their
advisors that they cannot win an election ever again in Zimbabwe, even if
they pulled off their plan for a political coup in the form of snap
elections without basic GPA reforms. With the full implementation of the
final GPA reforms (a new Constitution, Voters Roll, Delimitation, Electoral
Act, reformed media and other laws linked to elections and a reformed and
independent Electoral Commission supported by regional observers) they are
not just going to be defeated, I doubt they would win any seats at all.
The question is what will they pull out of the hat now? They are always very
quick to review their position after a political Tsunami like Luanda, then
to revise their strategies and set off in a new direction. It is difficult
to know just what they can do in this situation and there are ample signs in
Harare that panic and confusion reigns.
The last remaining pillar of support in Zimbabwe for Zanu is the military
and security establishment. These have had their teeth pulled by the region
which have made it clear that they would not tolerate any direct
intervention by the armed forces. They have attempted to take control of the
Zanu PF leadership and failed and are now trying to regroup around Mnangagwa
who just does not have the support in Zanu PF for a bid to take over the
Party leadership.
They have the guns and lots of money, but in a democratic election these
will not help or even assist. So what do they do next? I for one am waiting
to see just what they are going to attempt – while the hardliners and even
Mr. Mugabe himself continue to make strong statements on the issue of their
snap election strategies, it is clear to all that they are just barking dogs
on this issue. The region has closed the door on that option.
They have any option but to call for negotiations to try and get a soft
landing and a bit of space to regroup and restructure and perhaps come back
at some time in the future to fight again.
Eddie Cross
Harare, 10th June 2012